Having not done a prediction post before it should come as no surprise I was mostly wrong. But it is always interesting to look back:
The price of music (and media in general) continues to slide to $0. Dvd, hd-dvd, bluray and cd sales plummet.
Interesting that I was thinking about the price of media considering I only started buying it again recently due to an Apple TV purchase. Is it cheaper? I guess so. Lame prediction.
New revenue models will emerge for traditional media and information. Not just advertising.
Also a lame prediction. Micro-payments. Subscriptions. Merchandising. Still around. Not interesting. Staying alive with a good product and valuable services is interesting.
Marketing via Alternate Reality Games becomes more common.
Nope. Though the idea is still valid. Though Akoha comes to mind which does make this a somewhat accurate prediction.
User experience gets more attention, in particular Interaction Design, and Flow.
Probably. I know that the user experience is the top priority at Nitobi. We’ll be out in force at IxDA 09 conveniently here in Vancouver this year.
Low level cloud services continue to grow enabling one click infinitely scalable deployment of web applications. An area pioneered by Amazon we will see Microsoft, Yahoo and Google enter the fray lowering the cost to developers. Mozilla could be a dark horse here.
No real Yahoo offering yet (though they do have the most comprehensive suite of web services going). Microsoft has entered the fray as has the venerable Google. Neither is even close to the level of sophistication of Amazon’s offering. I was mostly right on this one.
Sustainability and climate change will become hazy platforms for polarized debate. The earth will continue to warm.
Guess so, though it is pretty fucking cold outside.
Canucks make the third round of the playoffs.
Wrong. *facepalm*
The mobile web gets a large following via microblogging tools and technology. Twitter gets acquired. Pownce releases an updated ATOM API with oAuth.
Well, Pownce was ‘acquired’ and Twitter is at least talking about oAuth. No idea how I related this to the mobile web but microblogging darlings Twitter and Tumblr are perfect mobile web citizens. (Runners up: Flickr and Facebook.)
AIR gets acceptance but doesn’t grow as quickly as Adobe expects. Changes to the security model sometime this summer will help.
Not sure what the AIR adoption has been but Nitobi is working on two AIR apps and we have plans for more. Cross platform web style dev with native functionality? Yes pls.
Silverlight fails. (It won’t go away but it will continue to suck.)
Nailed it.
APML, OpenID 2.0 and Attribute Exchange gain acceptance.
Sadly: not yet.
Dynamic languages continue to flourish; becoming acceptable glue for java and .net vms. People, like me, will roll their eyes and yawn.
Yes, I think this one is mostly accurate. The hindsight is wonderful. What an arrogant prick I can be.
The .NET community continues to totally misrepresent the concepts of REST and DSL’s with their new MVC (blatant shit ripoff) Framework.
Alright. Alright. This is more of an angry opinion than any sort of prediction. ASP MVC is apparently quite nice if you’re into that sort of thing.
Web services continue to fail. REST and ATOM (guised perhaps as GData) continue to succeed and grow. Techniques for offline / batch processing emerge.
Interesting, I forgot this was a problem we were looking at solving last year. RESTful batch processing is not in my personal list of ’solved’ problems. We’ve had some success with offline sync but this too will become a bigger issue in the future.
Java popularity rises while Mono’s shrinks
This is really hard to judge without creating some junk charts with subjective data. Instead, I’ll leave with my subjective opinion. The JVM is the way to go considering tooling, libs, portability and footprint. Otherwise Mono is pretty cool.
